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Cato & Veil / Early warning

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Early warning, in numbers.

A daily count of the events that come before coups, killings, prosecutions and wars, turned into probabilities you can watch move.

As of 17 October 2026

Events logged in 90 days
259
Questions tracked
14
Biggest move today
+8.7 ptsRussian attack on NATO soil
  • Force and violence
  • Espionage, detention and coercion
  • Unrest and succession
  • Sanctions

The globe shows published events from the last 90 days at their approximate location. The same events are listed in the feed below.

What this is

A disciplined way of watching.

A trigger event is something that tends to come before a larger one: an espionage arrest, a sanctions package, a missile test, a minister removed. Every morning a machine reads the world’s press and official records, logs each new trigger event, and gives it a severity from one to five and a source grade from A to D.

Each question starts from a base rate drawn from history. Every relevant event adds weight, and that weight fades over about four months. The sum moves the probability up or down from the base. A probability covers the whole horizon of its question. Nothing here predicts a single day.

The weights are judgement, not fitted to data. The track record is being built and will be published. Treat the numbers as a disciplined way of watching pressure build, not as an oracle.

14 standing questions

The questions.

Each figure is the probability that the event happens within the horizon shown. The faint line is the base rate.

Sahel · 180 days

Sahel coup

51%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 25%

Coup attempt with force in Mali, Burkina Faso or Niger

Three juntas, each already targeted; post-coup states carry several times the global coup hazard.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Sahel coups
  • Mali JNIM insurgency

Most recent published events

  • 6 Oct · Civil warMalian army with Russian Africa Corps retakes Kidal after FLA separatists withdraw without a fight DW via AllAfrica ↗

Gulf of Guinea · 180 days

Coastal West Africa coup

37%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 15%

Coup attempt in a coastal West African state

Two attempts and one seizure in the region in 14 months; coup contagion is well documented.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Gulf of Guinea coups
  • Togo succession protests
  • Cameroon election unrest
  • Cameroon leadership succession

Most recent published events

  • 6 Oct · Coup activityGuinea-Bissau junta chief Horta N'Tam sacks interior minister (Embaló's brother) and fisheries minister after barring Embaló's return RFI via allAfrica ↗
  • 20 Aug · Leadership successionBiya returns after 73-day absence in Geneva; new vice-presidency still unfilled Reuters via TimesLIVE ↗

NATO Europe · 180 days

Russian attack on NATO soil

47%+8.7 pts since the previous day
Base 20%

Russian-attributed attack causing deaths or major infrastructure damage on NATO territory

Sabotage campaign since 2024 with one rail bombing and repeated airspace violations; no mass-casualty event yet.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Russian sabotage and espionage in Europe
  • Russia-NATO air incursions
  • Baltic Sea cable incidents
  • Russia-Belarus exercises near NATO
  • Russia nuclear signalling in Belarus

Most recent published events

  • 12 Oct · EspionageTwo Turks arrested in Germany over arson at a Starlink ground station in Poland; Warsaw blames Russian services Al Jazeera ↗
  • 11 Oct · Assassination and political violenceFive European intelligence services warn defence executives of stepped-up GRU assassination plots; BfV urges close protection Financial Times via Kyiv Post ↗
  • 9 Oct · EspionageMontenegro detains and expels Rybar founder Mikhail Zvinchuk, his wife and three staff for 'potentially dangerous activity' Meduza (citing Vijesti) ↗
  • 8 Oct · EspionageRoyal Navy intelligence rating Teddy Young, 24, charged under National Security Act for trying to pass secret data to Russia ITV News ↗
  • 23 Sept · Military signalling and forceRussian Mi-8 from Kaliningrad enters Polish airspace for 42 seconds; fighters scrambled Stars and Stripes ↗

Europe · 180 days

Iranian attack in Europe

87%0.0 pts since the previous day
Base 35%

Iranian-directed physical attack on an exile, journalist or Jewish target in Europe

One completed stabbing and a run of charged plots in the UK, Germany and Denmark since 2024.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Iranian plots abroad

Most recent published events

  • 15 Oct · Transnational repressionHamburg court jails two men for spying on prominent Jewish figures and preparing attacks on behalf of the IRGC Quds Force Iran International ↗
  • 12 Oct · SanctionsUK says RAF Fairford plot was almost certainly IRGC-directed, sanctions IRGC counter-espionage chief Bazghandi and a Zindashti facilitator Al Jazeera ↗
  • 6 Oct · EspionageSeventh arrest in suspected Iran-linked plot against RAF Fairford; US withdrew B-1 bombers from the base Reuters via The Star ↗

Iran · 90 days

New foreign detainee in Iran

92%0.0 pts since the previous day
Base 60%

A new Western or dual national charged with espionage or security offences in Iran

Iran has charged or sentenced foreign nationals in most quarters since 2022; the rate rises with sanctions pressure and strikes.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Iran hostage detentions
  • US secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers
  • US secondary sanctions on Iran aviation
  • US secondary sanctions on Iran finance
  • US-Iran kinetic escalation
  • Iran unrest
  • Iran leadership succession

Most recent published events

  • 16 Oct · Military signalling and forceCrude tanker MT ST 3 with 15 Indian crew hit by projectile in the Strait of Hormuz; no injuries, India says The National ↗
  • 15 Oct · SanctionsOFAC designates Iranian exchange-house network incl. Iraq Development Bank, Chabahar and Jazireh banks, Hong Kong's Elitesphere US Treasury OFAC ↗
  • 13 Oct · Military signalling and forceSingapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sinks after projectile strike in Hormuz; Cape Dao also lost, one Indian crew dead CNN ↗
  • 5 Oct · Detention of foreign nationalsIran executes five men convicted over January protests, 30 Sep-5 Oct: Nikandish, Hemmati Sistanian, Jamshidi Kheirabadi, Raisi, Sepahi JURIST (citing Amnesty International) ↗

Taiwan Strait · 180 days

PLA blockade or force on Taiwan

74%+8.1 pts since the previous day
Base 50%

PLA blockade rehearsal with live fire, or use of force, against Taiwan

Two named blockade-style drills in 2025, both within days of a US arms announcement.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Taiwan Strait military signalling
  • China counter-sanctions on US defence firms
  • PRC enforcement posture vs Taiwan
  • PRC-Taiwan espionage prosecutions
  • Western Pacific naval signalling

Most recent published events

  • 14 Oct · Military signalling and forceLiaoning carrier group sails into the western Pacific east of Taiwan for 'routine' drills; 13 PLA aircraft cross the median line overnight Taipei Times ↗
  • 14 Oct · SanctionsChina's Taiwan Affairs Office sanctions VWAY Co, owned by DPP legislator Puma Shen's father, a day after Hong Kong papers targeted the firm Taipei Times ↗
  • 12 Oct · SanctionsChina sanctions Paraguay's communications minister and Belize's foreign minister over ties with Taiwan Al Jazeera ↗
  • 8 Oct · Military signalling and forceChina opens week-long live-fire drills in five coastal zones from the South China Sea to Liaoning after Lai's National Day speech Taipei Times ↗
  • 1 Oct · EspionageKaohsiung prosecutors indict three ex-military men for passing tank specs and Han Kuang exercise details to PRC provincial intelligence Taipei Times ↗

China · 180 days

Western executive held in China

73%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 50%

Exit ban or security detention of a Western executive or official in China

Exit bans recur during trade and sanctions disputes; detentions cluster after US enforcement actions.

Watchlines feeding it

  • China exit bans
  • US secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers
  • China extraterritorial export controls
  • US export-control enforcement
  • PRC agents in US (DOJ)
  • PRC transnational repression

Most recent published events

  • 15 Oct · Enforcement postureRussian Alexander Suvorov extradited from Sweden to New York, charged with smuggling US dual-use electronics to Russia via Hong Kong US Department of Justice ↗
  • 7 Oct · Transnational repressionTaipei prosecutors indict four private investigators paid NT$360,000 by two Hong Kong residents to film DPP legislator Puma Shen's family Focus Taiwan (CNA) ↗
  • 4 Oct · Transnational repressionFBI arrests Wanying Zhang at LAX; accused of surveilling President Lai's son and family in Seattle for the PRC AP via OPB; AFP ↗

Russia sanctions · 90 days

Third-country Russia sanctions

87%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 60%

US, UK or EU secondary sanctions on third-country banks or firms for Russia trade

Each of the last four quarters has carried at least one third-country designation.

Watchlines feeding it

  • UK Russia sanctions packages
  • EU Russia sanctions packages
  • US secondary sanctions on Russia trade
  • US sectoral sanctions on Russia energy
  • UK shadow-fleet interdiction
  • Russia-NATO air incursions

Most recent published events

  • 15 Oct · SanctionsEU lists three individuals and nine entities in Russia, Türkiye, UAE, India and Seychelles for circumventing Russia sanctions Council of the European Union ↗
  • 9 Oct · SanctionsUS Treasury suspends sanctions on Russian diesel until April 2027 under Trump-Putin deal for 4.8m tonnes MercoPress ↗
  • 23 Sept · Military signalling and forceRussian Mi-8 from Kaliningrad enters Polish airspace for 42 seconds; fighters scrambled Stars and Stripes ↗

United States · 180 days

Attack on a US national figure

29%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 20%

Killing or attempted killing of a US federal officeholder or national political figure

Three fatal political shootings and one arson in 2025; Iranian plots against US figures convicted in 2026.

Watchlines feeding it

  • US political violence
  • Iranian plots abroad

Most recent published events

  • 15 Oct · Transnational repressionHamburg court jails two men for spying on prominent Jewish figures and preparing attacks on behalf of the IRGC Quds Force Iran International ↗
  • 15 Oct · Assassination and political violenceFBI probes 100-plus suspicious white-powder letters sent to election offices in 13 states and to Senators Padilla, Murphy and Schumer Votebeat ↗
  • 12 Oct · SanctionsUK says RAF Fairford plot was almost certainly IRGC-directed, sanctions IRGC counter-espionage chief Bazghandi and a Zindashti facilitator Al Jazeera ↗
  • 7 Oct · Assassination and political violenceArkansas man David Czerniak indicted and arrested for threatening two Massachusetts members of Congress by voicemail US Department of Justice ↗
  • 6 Oct · EspionageSeventh arrest in suspected Iran-linked plot against RAF Fairford; US withdrew B-1 bombers from the base Reuters via The Star ↗

Mexico · 180 days

Federal-level killing in Mexico

21%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 10%

Killing of a federal-level figure in Mexico (governor, senator, federal deputy, cabinet)

Municipal killings are near-continuous; federal-level killings remain rare.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Mexico political killings

Most recent published events

  • 11 Oct · Assassination and political violenceFormer Otatitlán mayor and 2025 PRI mayoral candidate Jorge Guerrero García shot dead by armed group in his restaurant in Veracruz Infobae ↗
  • 9 Oct · Assassination and political violenceJournalist Hamurabi Huesca Manzano, owner of Pinotepa Comunica, shot dead by armed group in Oaxaca; ninth journalist killed in 2026 Al Jazeera ↗
  • 22 Jul · Assassination and political violenceJournalist Francisco Leyva shot dead in Oaxaca Daily Maverick/Reuters ↗

Iran · 180 days

Rupture at the top in Iran

19%0.0 pts since the previous day
Base 15%

Open leadership split, incapacity or removal of the supreme leader in Iran

Succession contested since March 2026; mass unrest and decapitation strikes are the historical precursors of regime fracture.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Iran leadership succession
  • Iran unrest
  • Israeli state killings abroad
  • Iran internal political violence

Most recent published events

  • 14 Oct · Detention of foreign nationalsIran executes Kerman mountaineer Ali-Sina Mostafavi for armed attacks during the war, alleging support for Reza Pahlavi and Israel Iran International ↗
  • 5 Oct · Detention of foreign nationalsIran executes five men convicted over January protests, 30 Sep-5 Oct: Nikandish, Hemmati Sistanian, Jamshidi Kheirabadi, Raisi, Sepahi JURIST (citing Amnesty International) ↗

Horn of Africa · 180 days

Ethiopia–Eritrea war

68%+1.8 pts since the previous day
Base 15%

Interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Pretoria deal collapsed in September 2026 with Eritrea named as sponsor; port access dispute unresolved.

Watchlines feeding it

  • Ethiopia Tigray war

Most recent published events

  • 16 Oct · Civil warAbiy names a six-month caretaker government for Tigray with an election promised within that period Just Security Early Edition (citing Reuters) ↗
  • 15 Oct · Civil warFederal forces and Tigray Peace Force enter Aksum; ACLED reports Eritrean troops withdrawing across the border via Zalambessa Al Jazeera (AFP/Anadolu) ↗
  • 11 Oct · Civil warFederal forces and allied militia take Shire and Adigrat and enter Adwa, 40 km from the Eritrean border, after TPLF withdrawals Al Jazeera ↗
  • 8 Oct · Military signalling and forceEthiopian drones strike Eritrean troops at Adigrat; Addis tells Security Council of an 'all-out invasion' AFP via Kuwait Times ↗
  • 7 Oct · Military signalling and forceEritrean troops cross into Tigray at Zalambessa and deploy around Adigrat with heavy weapons AFP via Express Tribune ↗

South Asia · 180 days

India–Pakistan strikes

26%−0.1 pts since the previous day
Base 20%

India–Pakistan kinetic exchange (strikes across the LoC or border)

Operation Sindoor set a precedent for strikes after a mass-casualty attack.

Watchlines feeding it

  • India-Pakistan kinetic escalation
  • India-Pakistan espionage
  • Pakistan political killings
  • India political killings

Most recent published events

  • 6 Oct · EspionageAndhra Pradesh police arrest Visakhapatnam naval base employee and navy contract driver for spying for Pakistan Business Today ↗

United States · 180 days

DOJ charges a PRC agent in government

49%−0.2 pts since the previous day
Base 30%

DOJ charges a serving US government official or staffer as an agent of the PRC

Linda Sun (2024) set the template; DOJ national-security priorities point to continued prioritisation.

Watchlines feeding it

  • PRC agents in US (DOJ)
  • PRC transnational repression
  • US corporate-enforcement posture
  • US export-control enforcement

Most recent published events

  • 15 Oct · Enforcement postureRussian Alexander Suvorov extradited from Sweden to New York, charged with smuggling US dual-use electronics to Russia via Hong Kong US Department of Justice ↗
  • 7 Oct · Transnational repressionTaipei prosecutors indict four private investigators paid NT$360,000 by two Hong Kong residents to film DPP legislator Puma Shen's family Focus Taiwan (CNA) ↗
  • 4 Oct · Transnational repressionFBI arrests Wanying Zhang at LAX; accused of surveilling President Lai's son and family in Seattle for the PRC AP via OPB; AFP ↗

Movers · 17 October 2026

What moved today.

Up

  • Russian attack on NATO soil+8.7 ptsnow 47%

    No published event on these watchlines in the past three days.

  • PLA blockade or force on Taiwan+8.1 ptsnow 74%

    • 14 Oct · Military signalling and forceLiaoning carrier group sails into the western Pacific east of Taiwan for 'routine' drills; 13 PLA aircraft cross the median line overnight Taipei Times ↗
    • 14 Oct · SanctionsChina's Taiwan Affairs Office sanctions VWAY Co, owned by DPP legislator Puma Shen's father, a day after Hong Kong papers targeted the firm Taipei Times ↗

  • Ethiopia–Eritrea war+1.8 ptsnow 68%

    • 15 Oct · Civil warFederal forces and Tigray Peace Force enter Aksum; ACLED reports Eritrean troops withdrawing across the border via Zalambessa Al Jazeera (AFP/Anadolu) ↗
    • 16 Oct · Civil warAbiy names a six-month caretaker government for Tigray with an election promised within that period Just Security Early Edition (citing Reuters) ↗

Down

Nothing fell by half a point or more.

    Replay

    Watch the pressure build.

    6 mornings of forecasts. Drag through them, or play them at two seconds a day.

    1. Sahel coup51%
    2. Coastal West Africa coup37%
    3. Russian attack on NATO soil47%
    4. Iranian attack in Europe87%
    5. New foreign detainee in Iran92%
    6. PLA blockade or force on Taiwan74%
    7. Western executive held in China73%
    8. Third-country Russia sanctions87%
    9. Attack on a US national figure29%
    10. Federal-level killing in Mexico21%
    11. Rupture at the top in Iran19%
    12. Ethiopia–Eritrea war68%
    13. India–Pakistan strikes26%
    14. DOJ charges a PRC agent in government49%
    17 October 2026

    Event feed

    What was logged.

    Published events from the last 90 days, graded A or B. Newest first.

    84 published events

    • 16 OctMilitary signalling and force

      Crude tanker MT ST 3 with 15 Indian crew hit by projectile in the Strait of Hormuz; no injuries, India says

      Strait of HormuzThe National ↗

    • 16 OctCivil war

      Abiy names a six-month caretaker government for Tigray with an election promised within that period

      EthiopiaJust Security Early Edition (citing Reuters) ↗

    • 16 OctMilitary signalling and force

      Bulgaria formally asks NATO to deploy combat aircraft and anti-drone systems after drone attacks on Black Sea shipping

      Bulgaria/Black SeaJust Security Early Edition (citing Reuters) ↗

    • 15 OctMilitary signalling and force

      Drones hit two tankers in and just outside Romanian waters off Sulina; Wine Trader ablaze with seven crew missing

      RomaniaFirst of its kindAl Jazeera ↗

    • 15 OctMilitary signalling and force

      Houthi attacks hit Abha, Najran and Jazan airports; drone intercepted over Khamis Mushait and cruise missile over Medina

      Saudi ArabiaGulf News ↗

    • 15 OctAssassination and political violence

      Gunmen in a bakkie kill two ANC members canvassing door-to-door in Umgababa, KZN south coast; one wounded

      South AfricaTimesLive ↗

    • 15 OctSanctions

      OFAC designates Iranian exchange-house network incl. Iraq Development Bank, Chabahar and Jazireh banks, Hong Kong's Elitesphere

      Iran/Iraq/Hong KongUS Treasury OFAC ↗

    • 15 OctSanctions

      EU lists three individuals and nine entities in Russia, Türkiye, UAE, India and Seychelles for circumventing Russia sanctions

      European Union/Türkiye/UAE/India/SeychellesCouncil of the European Union ↗

    • 15 OctTransnational repression

      Hamburg court jails two men for spying on prominent Jewish figures and preparing attacks on behalf of the IRGC Quds Force

      GermanyIran International ↗

    • 15 OctMilitary signalling and force

      Saudi-led coalition says it intercepted a cruise missile over the Medina region; Houthis deny any attack that day

      Saudi ArabiaFirst of its kindMalay Mail (AFP) ↗

    • 15 OctSanctions

      OFAC designates Cuba's state Banco Internacional de Comercio (BICSA) under EO 14404

      CubaFirst of its kindUS Treasury OFAC ↗

    • 15 OctDetention of foreign nationals

      FSB detains Swedish national, 35, in Pskov region, alleging he fought for Ukraine's Aidar battalion and entered to sabotage military sites

      RussiaThe Moscow Times ↗

    • 15 OctCivil war

      Houthi missiles hit al-Maashiq presidential palace in Aden, killing five incl. two PM bodyguards; Houthis also attack Dhubab airport

      YemenFirst of its kindAl Jazeera ↗

    • 15 OctCivil war

      Federal forces and Tigray Peace Force enter Aksum; ACLED reports Eritrean troops withdrawing across the border via Zalambessa

      EthiopiaAl Jazeera (AFP/Anadolu) ↗

    • 15 OctEnforcement posture

      Russian Alexander Suvorov extradited from Sweden to New York, charged with smuggling US dual-use electronics to Russia via Hong Kong

      United States/Sweden/Hong KongUS Department of Justice ↗

    • 15 OctCivil war

      Army Antonov strike on a house in RSF-held Abu Zaeima, North Kordofan kills five children from one family

      SudanAl Arabiya (AFP) ↗

    • 15 OctMilitary signalling and force

      Philippines rebukes Chinese ambassador Jing Quan's 'if we want to use force, we may easily win' remark as a thinly veiled threat

      PhilippinesGMA News ↗

    • 15 OctAssassination and political violence

      FBI probes 100-plus suspicious white-powder letters sent to election offices in 13 states and to Senators Padilla, Murphy and Schumer

      United StatesVotebeat ↗

    20 further events graded C or D are counted but not published.

    Method

    How it is counted.

    Categories

    Espionage
    Arrests, charges and convictions for spying, and expulsions of intelligence officers.
    Transnational repression
    States reaching across borders to watch, threaten or coerce exiles, dissidents and their families.
    Detention of foreign nationals
    Detentions, trials and sentences of foreign or dual nationals, and related state punishment.
    Enforcement posture
    Prosecutions, extraditions and regulatory action that show how hard a state is enforcing.
    Sanctions
    New designations and packages, counter-sanctions, and their suspension.
    Coup activity
    Attempts, plots, purges and manoeuvres inside juntas.
    Civil war
    Offensives, territorial gains and mass-casualty strikes in internal wars.
    Unrest
    Protests, riots, curfews and emergency rule.
    Assassination and political violence
    Killings, attempts, plots and credible threats against political figures, officials and journalists.
    Military signalling and force
    Strikes, incursions, exercises, deployments and signalling between states.
    Leadership succession
    Health, absence, appointments and contests at the top of a state.

    Severity

    1. 1 · Signal
    2. 2 · Low
    3. 3 · Significant
    4. 4 · Serious
    5. 5 · Critical

    Source grade

    1. A Official record
    2. B Major wire or national press
    3. C Regional or single outlet
    4. D Unverified or contested

    Weight

    An event’s weight fades over about four months, and the lift any question can take from events is capped, so a burst of reporting moves a probability without pushing it to certainty.

    What is withheld

    Events graded C or D count towards the probabilities but are not listed, because they can name people under live allegations. 20 are withheld in the current window.

    Canary is operated by Cato & Veil and updated each morning, London time.

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